| Position | 15.0N, 46.9W |
| Max sustained wind | 35kt / 40mph |
| Central pressure | 1008 mb |
| Movement | WNW at 25mph |
| Sea surface temp | 82.0F |
Weakened to post tropical as forecast. Winds expected to fall below tropical storm strength by Saturday. Main real threat now is heavy rain and flash flooding for the Leewards, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, not wind.
| +48h | 13.9N, 70.8W |
| +96h | 20.4N, 95.3W |
Caveat: NHC stopped issuing tracked advisories once Dolly became an open wave. Real regeneration odds are described as low with no consensus location. Both our model and real official assessments agree this is not shaping up as a serious US threat, our 96h point lands near the Mexico coast, not Texas.
| Our calibrated model | 504km @48h / 1216km @96h |
| Raw steering advection | 877km @48h / 1698km @96h |
| NHC CLIPER5 baseline | ~418km @48h |
| NHC official forecast | ~117km @48h |
Persistence + climatology + steering regression, cross validated on 90 real Atlantic storms (2018 to 2023). Built and run on our own GPU.